He is far from the first to predict the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s demise. A large genre of \u201ccollapsist\u201d commentary, to borrow historian Geremie Barm\u00e9\u2019s nice term, already exists. In the wake of 1989\u2019s Beijing massacre, Amb. Winston Lord insisted that the party would be out of power in weeks if not days. Twelve years later, Gordon G. Chang\u2019s \u201cThe Coming Collapse of China\u201d confidently proclaimed an end of party rule \u201cby 2011.\u201d Mr. Shambaugh\u2019s contention stands out, though, due to his prominence and previous emphasis on how well China\u2019s Communist Party had learned lessons from the \u201cLeninist extinction\u201d of 1989-91.<\/p>\n
Mr. Shambaugh\u2019s latest book offers good short takes on key trends\u2014from the growth of consumer spending to rapid urbanization\u2014that have transformed a country of villages into one with cities whose \u201csheer magnitude\u201d is \u201chard to grasp.\u201d He contrasts China\u2019s \u201csoft power, which remains quite soft around the world,\u201d with \u201chard power\u201d that is \u201cgrowing by the day,\u201d a fact that \u201cwas literally on display in massive military parades in Tiananmen Square\u201d in 2009 and 2015. And he examines Mr. Xi\u2019s strange use of the term \u201crule of law,\u201d in which the legal system becomes \u201ca tool in the hands of the party-state to enforce its writ and rule.\u201d<\/p>\n
In his handling of this disturbingly illiberal interpretation of the \u201crule of law,\u201d we see clear evidence of the author trading in his previously fairly upbeat approach to the party\u2019s prospects for a downbeat one. Mr. Shambaugh claims that this is a rational response to the organization\u2019s self-destructive swerve toward \u201cHard Authoritarianism,\u201d which came after a decade and a half spent embracing a form of \u201cSoft Authoritarianism.\u201d Former leader Jiang Zemin and then Hu Jintao <\/span>made encouraging, if sometimes glacially slow, liberalizing moves, but these stopped in 2007. And Mr. Xi has tacked even harder in the Hard Authoritarian direction since taking power in 2012.<\/p>\n China\u2019s Future By David Shambaugh Polity, 203 pages, $19.95<\/p><\/div>\n The author likens Mr. Xi to a driver approaching a roundabout. Will he continue on the Hard Authoritarian road? Turn off in a Soft Authoritarian direction, loosening controls in the manner of two earlier periods (the 1980s and 1992 to 2007)? Exit along a \u201cNeo-Totalitarian\u201d route that would take China back to where it was when Mao ruled (1949-76)? Or choose a \u201cSemi-Democratic\u201d path, moving China toward becoming a supersize Singapore, with an electoral system but one that favors a single party and a public sphere that is not quite like those found in either fully authoritarian or fully democratic states? Mr. Shambaugh sees little chance of Mr. Xi steering the country toward democracy.<\/p>\n The Soft Authoritarian and Semi-Democratic routes would best serve the party\u2019s own interest as well as those of the Chinese people, Mr. Shambaugh says, but he does not think that Mr. Xi will realize this. He fears a Neo-Totalitarian turn but does not expect that to happen. Most likely, Mr. Xi will stay the Hard Authoritarian course, imagining that doing so will ensure stability.<\/p>\n The problem, according to Mr. Shambaugh, is that China has exited the development stage during which rapid growth could come from making cheap goods in big factories staffed by large numbers of workers willing to accept low wages. It has entered what modernization theorists call the \u201cmiddle income trap,\u201d which can only be escaped via greater reliance on inventing new products and taking the lead in industries that depend on brains more than brawn. The experience of other countries, he insists, shows that the systems most effective at dealing with this trap are democratic ones or authoritarian ones with liberalizing leaders more willing than Mr. Xi to let information circulate freely. Upheaval and crisis, not stability, lie ahead for China.<\/p>\n \u201cChina\u2019s Future\u201d is necessarily much more speculative than Mr. Shambaugh\u2019s two other recent books, but they complement one another enough to be read as a trilogy of sorts. Once again, Mr. Shambaugh roots his claims in a wide reading of English-language scholarship, the scrutiny of an eclectic collection of Chinese-language documents, and observations drawn from trips to China. Once again, he offers sensible, succinct summaries of specific subjects.<\/p>\n I share many of Mr. Shambaugh\u2019s hopes and fears and agree with much that he says about what\u2019s happened of late. But I don\u2019t buy his notion that the past performance of developing countries provides a clear guide for China\u2019s future. Modernization theorists do not have as successful a track record as he suggests. Even if they did, I would be skeptical about applying their ideas to the current chaotic scene. The course of events keeps disproving assumptions about political trends involving authoritarianism of all varieties. In our tightly interconnected world, what happens in one place can send shock waves through other settings, changing the way populations and leaders think about issues such as stability, growth and the risks of staying a course or trying something new.<\/p>\n Mr. Xi may indeed be like a driver reaching a roundabout, but we need to be mindful of more than just what road he came in on and which routes previous drivers have taken. There are a lot of erratic cars out there on the highway, and whether they keep swerving or move forward smoothly will make a difference.<\/p>\n Mr. Wasserstrom is the author of the just-published \u201cEight Juxtapositions\u201d and the editor of the forthcoming \u201cOxford Illustrated History of Modern China.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n Source: http:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/the-great-fall-of-china-1459206467<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The country has entered the \u2018middle inco … Continue reading ![\"China\u2019s](\"http:\/\/www.chinesepen.org\/english\/files\/2016\/04\/China\u2019s-Future.jpg\")