Author: wulb

又到了酷暑炎夏，持续的高温，让我们的日常生活陷入了更糟糕的境地。打开报纸、电视，最醒目的版面、最扎眼的镜头总是娱乐，除了娱乐还是娱乐，不光足球是娱乐，“梦想中国”、“超级女声”等形形色色的选秀是娱乐，明星闹绯闻、生孩子是娱乐，绝大部分社会新闻也都被媒体一样处理成了娱乐，比如富豪如何掘金,比如民工讨不到工资要跳楼，比如官员腐败被揪出来，比如发生什么刑事案子……在我们的新闻中常常都逃不了被当作茶余饭后的娱乐材料。我记得有一阵子河北有个贪官李真倒霉，媒体一天到晚做李真的文章，李真简直成了娱乐明星，他的狱中自白厚厚的一本，也成了畅销书，据说买书的多为未倒霉的官员。我们的娱乐早已超越了一般意义上的正常娱乐，我们的公共生活本身完全被娱乐化，我们释放生命能量的方式似乎只剩下了娱乐，娱乐之外几乎都是此路不通。

也许有人会追问——这样一个泛娱乐化的时代到底是如何塑造出来的？说来其实也简单，因为除了娱乐，其他都是不允许的，那就娱乐吧，人要活下去，如果连娱乐都不让，也这个社会可能一天都运转不下去。我在网上看到过这样一篇妙文，个人以为，这是我们这个时代最有意思的文字之一，这只是对卡尔维诺《做起来》的点评，然而括号中的片言只语无不直指我们生活的内核，凡是还保持着正常思考能力、人性尚存的中国人，一定都能为这样的文字所震撼，引起内心的强烈共鸣。全文不过千字，先抄在下面：

有这样一个镇子，做什么事都被禁止了。  

现在，因为唯一未被禁止的就是尖脚猫游戏，所以镇上的臣民就经常聚在镇后边的草坪上，成天地玩尖脚猫游戏。（常规的三脚猫游戏有三种：吃，麻将，色情。偶尔的就比较多了：超女，馒头，足球什么的）
因为禁令被制订的时候总有恰当的原因，所以没有任何人觉得有理由抱怨，也没人觉得受不了。（纪德《访苏联归来》：“苏联公民对外国的无知非同一般。更有甚者，苏联公民被告知国外各方面一切都不如苏联。他们巧妙地让苏联人保持了这种幻觉；因为重要的是让每个人庆幸自己处于让他免遭更不幸的痛苦的政权之下，即使这个人并不很满意。”是苏联吧？可是地球上已经找不到这个国家了……）
几年过去了。有一天，官员们觉得再没有任何理由禁止臣民做这些事了，他们就派了传令官四处通知人们一切都开禁了。（是以前的某一天，今年的某一天，还是二十年以后，五十年以后？）
传令官来到老百姓喜欢聚集的那些地方。（政府不喜欢老百姓聚集，老实说，是有点害怕他们聚集。）
“听好了，听好了，”他们宣布，“所有的都开禁了。”（传令官不敢一个人单独来，来的是一群）
但人们还是玩尖脚猫游戏。（是服从，还是不服从？奴役的惯性。）
“明白吗？”传令官重申，“你们现在可以任意做想做的事了。”
“好的，”臣民们回答。“我们玩尖脚猫。”（孙隆基《缺乏拯救：中国人的生活最形而下》：一位从事中国研究、喜欢结交中国人的挪威女士告诉我：她认识的一个中国家庭，从大陆移民到美国之后，长期以来注目的只是买房子、购车子，搞物质生活，从来也不去参加在国内时不能参加的活动，也从不去阅读在国内未有机会接触的书籍。）
那些传令官一再地提醒他们的臣民，他们又可以回到他们从前曾经从事的那些高尚而有用的职业中去了。但是老百姓都不愿听，他们继续玩尖脚猫，一圈又一圈，甚至都不停下来喘口气。（以前在游戏中找自由，现在不同了，可以自由地做游戏。）
看到他们是白费劲了，那些传令官就回去禀报上面。
“这很容易，”那些官员们说，“现在我们下令禁止尖脚猫。”（愚蠢的官员，不知道留个出气孔。看来之前的“开禁”是假的，老百姓继续玩尖脚猫是明智的，他们见识了太多类似的虚假承诺。随时可以开禁，随时可以禁止；一会儿五十年，一会儿变成一百年。）
人民就是在那时开始反抗的，杀了很多官员。（人民一定死得更多。）
然后人民分秒必争地又回去玩尖脚猫了。（连作稳了奴隶的时代，也不容易得到。）

卡尔维诺的寓言本身虽然精妙，但如果缺乏这种刻骨铭心的切身体验，读来也会觉得稀松平常，这位意大利作家绝对想不到，他虚构的几百字小故事，在我们读来竟有惊心动魄之感，他仿佛代表一个咽喉被卡住的东方民族说出了心里话，他点破了强权控制之下人类最无奈的悲剧命运。当我们只拥有娱乐的权利，每天面对娱乐节目的时候，我们玩的正是小镇上的“尖脚猫”游戏，我们能做的就是誓将“尖脚猫”进行到底，“尖脚猫”就是我们的宿命，如果有人在“尖脚猫”之外寻求新的东西，那一定是大逆不道，一定要予以严厉处置。“尖脚猫”可以概括这个时代的全部内涵，“尖脚猫”照见的决不只是这个社会的影子，而是真实的面目，是我们难以摆脱又必须摆脱的命运。

在我们这里，富人有富人的“尖脚猫”，穷人有穷人的“尖脚猫”，没有人能够幸免。如果说穷人的“尖脚猫”只是麻将、扑克之类，那么富人的“尖脚猫”不仅包括那些或奢侈或廉价的娱乐，也包括买房子、买车子、买各种各样高档的消费品，他们在不同牌子、不同风格的房子、车子之间精挑细选，好象这就是人生全部的价值和追求，在这里房子、车子也是娱乐的载体，是娱乐人生的游戏之一，捷克思想家哈维尔早已洞穿后极权时代的奥秘之一是拥有了选择不同牌子的冰箱、洗衣机的机会。华裔历史学家孙隆基笔下，那位挪威人的观察一样的准确，一个人在一个只允许玩“尖脚猫”的环境里呆惯了，即使到了自由世界，他也只能继续玩他的“尖脚猫”，“尖脚猫”之外的一切，已引不起他的兴趣，他的精神生命早已被阉割了，剩下的肉身只能按习惯行动。

在我们这里，媒体每天玩它的“尖脚猫”，将什么新闻都制作成娱乐大餐，端在我们的面前，逗你笑、逗你乐、逗你玩，让你感到娱乐的快感，让你饱一饱可有可无的眼福、耳福，享受转眼即逝的刺激。尽管你知道那一切与你的人生、与你的梦想、与你做人的尊严都毫无关系，但你无法回避，媒体也无法回避，它要生存，就要适应“尖脚猫”的游戏规则，就要日复一日不断地奉献出“尖脚猫”给我们。说实话，媒体也很无奈，西安事变周年不准纪念、不准评论，“双百”方针不准纪念、不准评论，“文革”周年不准纪念、不准评论，这样的不准太多，而只有“尖脚猫”是被允许的，那好，我们就尽情地玩“尖脚猫”吧，“芙蓉姐姐”来了，就大炒特炒她的“S”身段，“超级女声”来了，就把马力开足，铺天盖地地叙说“一夜造星”的眼泪与欢笑。“世界杯”来了，那就昏天黑地把足球看个痛快。什么东西只要不被禁止，都有可能成为我们的“尖脚猫”，都有可能成为我们的娱乐方式。

在我们这里，学校奉行的是“尖脚猫”的教育，教科书、课堂、老师、练习题、考试、标准答案以及衡量一个学生、老师的标准都是围绕着“尖脚猫”设计的，不能越雷池一步，不能绕开“尖脚猫”自搞一套，尤其根绝独立思考，答案都已设定，考而优则胜，教师怎么教、学生怎么学，都得按照这个规矩方圆进行。在这样的教育中，我们当然产生不出自己的本民族的阿马蒂亚·森，我们只会有那些与利益集团捆绑在一起的经济学专家，站在强势者一边的知识精英。

这是一个“尖脚猫”通吃的形而下时代，“尖脚猫”不仅是我们的娱乐，也是我们的生活，“尖脚猫”无所不在，笼罩了我们全部的生命。但是，我们知道，在“尖脚猫”的背后，贫富悬殊的两极分化，由于制度缺陷导致的社会不公、苦难与不幸，每时每刻依然都在发生着。将“尖脚猫”进行到底，还是告别“尖脚猫”，每个人可以作出自己的抉择。

据说，全世界三分之二的吊车正在中国工地使用着，全世界每年生产的60%的水泥，正浇灌在中国的土地上，中国连续已经三年GDP增长超过10%.与此同时，二十多年来，中国经济与社会正在发生着持续的静悄悄的阶层革命。那就是，以知识作为“软资本”的中产阶级与中等收入者阶层，开始在中国崛起。如果你对此没有特别的感觉，那么，请看看节假日在黄山、泰山及各旅游点那些像蚂蚁般密密麻麻的人群，你就会同意此言不虚。

在中国当代社会变迁过程中，新兴的中产阶级与承担着道德批判功能的知识分子，在现代化发展过程中起着重要的作用。本文试图对这两类人的特点作一简略的分析。

中产阶级指的就是介乎于上层阶级与下层阶级之间的中间阶层。社会学家一般把以从事非体力性的白领职业，受过较高教育、并有较高的生活品质与趣味，作为判断中产阶级的标准。自英国维多利亚时代到上世纪五十年代，英国的大学入学考试就被称之英国人称之为“中产阶级考试”，就是因为大学专门知识教育是进入中产阶级大门的入场券。

当代中国市场经济发展过程中出现的中产阶级的人群，主要有高级专业技术人员，如建筑师、律师、私人企业中的技师、商业营销人员、经理、与市场运作密切相关的影视工作者，教授、医生、股票经纪人与自由职业者，等等。这些人的共同特点是，他们所受的教育、专业技能与知识智能，成为在市场经济条件下换取各种稀缺资源（财富、地位、名望与权力）的“资本”。随着市场经济的不断发展，这种社会分化过程中的向上流动发展到一定阶段，社会中间层就应运而生。他们比普通收入的蓝领阶层更富有，又与暴发致富的、有权有势的保守的既得利益者相比，在生活态度上与价值观上更具进取精神与改革愿望。

社会学家指出，首先，由于中产者相对富有，具有较高的文化修养，享有的较高水准的生活质量，拥有较为轻松良好的工作环境，凡此种种，就会使他们对现实生活与现存秩序相对比较满意，这种温和的保守性，使他们对社会对立与社会矛盾起到缓解作用。正是在这个意义上，他们是保持即存秩序稳定的重要社会基础，另一方面，他们又并不完全满足现状，因为他们的利益往往受到钱权交易与官僚系统中的非法行为的侵害与不正当的阻碍，因此，他们希望社会民主制度与法制的进一步完善，以此来保护他们的合法利益，希望有更大的自由发展空间与机会。正因为如此，一方面，他们希望变革，另一方面他们又反对激进革命或否定现存体制与秩序，正是以上两方面因素结合，使中产阶级往往总是渐进温和的改良政治的支持者。一个由中产阶级占多数的社会，一般总是相对稳定又保持着稳定中进取精神的社会。改革二十年以后的当今中国，新兴中产阶级对中国的改革开放抱有相对乐观的态度，成为主张在保持政治稳定的条件下的渐进变革的社会基础。

如果说，中产阶级缺乏道德激情，然而却务实而稳健，那么，与中产阶级相比，作为“观念人”的知识分子却恰恰相反，他们充满强烈的道德激情与正义感，然而却往往不切实际，容易产生全盘改造现实的“乌托邦情结”。所谓知识分子（Intelligentsia），指的是这样一种人，这些人受过高深的人文教育，习惯于通过抽象概念来思考社会问题，同时又拥有比一般人更多的文化知识与信息来源，因而对社会问题与弊端更为敏感。这种知识与敏感相结合，使他们自愿地承担起以关注社会、改造社会、改良社会为已任的道德使命。他们对社会问题的关注，往往与个人所属集团的利益没有直接关联，而与他们所自觉承担的道德使命感有关。从本质上说，知识分子更具有激进的理想主义的倾向性。二十世纪的中国历史上，他们对中国的激进革命选择确实起到重要的作用。

在中国当今社会，出现了这样一种新的现象，一方面，发展中社会面临的种种问题与困境，如贫富分化、官员腐败、社会不公与种种矛盾，使传统的观念型知识分子有了以道德理念的话语权力来进行诠释的巨大机会，这就会使他们追求完美的“乌托邦情结”仍然有着用武之地，另一方面，市场经济的世俗化过程，又使那些崇尚务实与稳健，但缺乏道德激情与社会批判精神的中产阶级不断强大起来。

中国在现阶段的进步，实在需要这两种人的相互补充与支持。如果每个中国知识分子能在保持他的道德热情的同时，又能以一个专业人员那样的方式，而不是以哲学家和诗人的方式来考虑中国问题，如果中国新兴的中产阶级能在求得自身发展的同时，能多一点社会关怀，中国就可能一方面避免以激进的乌托邦来主宰人们对问题的思考，另一方面又会以渐进、稳健、务实、妥协与宽容的精神，来选择我们民族的前途，这样的民族无疑是更有希望的。近年来，我们看到大多数知识分子已经逐渐摆脱了八十年代知识分子那种理想主义的、从道德原理出发思考中国的倾向，而转向务实的、以专业背景来思考问题的态度，这也许正是知识分子与中产阶级以新的基础上相结合的起点。

（上海师范大学历史系教授 萧功秦）

   【大明帝国东厂通讯社一六O六年八月九日讯】最近西门庆大官人发表重要谈话：潘金莲小姐宣布嫁给我，「是婚姻爱情的现实，也是婚姻爱情发展的必然趋势，希望各方特别武大郎同志要很客观地对待这样一种现实和趋势。」
   
   西门大官人又说，「自从西门集团对大郎烧饼公司实行十五项优惠措施以来，双方合作空间已经变得无限大，我集团派了代表二捣鬼先生准备到大郎公司洽商烧饼合作事宜。但是自从我由大郎同志那里把金莲小姐团结过来之后，合作受了一点阻力，这是因为大郎同志把对潘小姐琵琶别抱的怨气撤到了二捣鬼先生头上。我大官人有信心克服一切阻力把合作进行到底，希望大郎同志要识相一点，不要敬酒不吃吃罚酒。」
   
   

   【夜狼国野狼通讯社二六O六年八月九日讯】夜狼国宝岛办公室副主任孙亚夫大官人说：自从大陆出台十五项惠台措施以后，两岸农业方面的合作有了新的进展，国共两党正筹备召开的两岸农业合作论坛，(将)进一步把两岸农业合作向前推进。中台办主任陈云林赴台参加农业合作论坛最近又遇阻挠，台湾当局把「台乍断交」及狼乍建交的怨气撒到陈云林头上。但就算阻力再大，陈云林还是会尽力争取赴台。
   
   孙大官人强调说，夜狼国和乍得建交，「是国际政治的现实也是国际政治发展的必然趋势，希望各方要很客观对待这样一种现实和趋势。」 (《大公报》)
   
   关于国共两党两岸农业合作论坛，孙亚夫表示，「大陆已经表明了自己的态度和缘由」，希望台湾不要不识抬举，「台湾有关方面能抱着对促进两岸交流有利的态度来对待这件事情，来办理有关的事务。」
   
   【武宜三跋】真是有偶无独，西门庆大官人和孙亚夫大官人何其相似乃尔！像西门庆大官人和孙亚夫大官人这样的伟大天才在世界上四千年才出一个，但在我们夜狼国则四百年就出一个，这是伟大的夜狼民族的光荣和幸福。愿西门庆精神万古长存！
   
   
   10Aug2006

中共践踏人权，残害同胞，每每受到国际社会的批评与谴责。对此，中共一律斥之为“干涉内政”。中共疾言厉色，似乎“理直气壮”。

比方说，两户人家，互为邻里。其中一户人家闹内讧，设若仅仅是拌嘴吵架，隔壁人家自不必干涉，顶多劝谕两句；但设若这户人家中，丈夫持凶器威胁或伤害妻子，隔壁人家理当挺身而出，予以谴责、制止、乃至于将逞凶者送交法办。因为，事态发展至此，已经不是一个家庭问题，而是人的问题。不是家庭“内政”，而是社会公理。

同理，当一个国家发生内部纷争，如果仅仅是口舌笔墨之争，其他国家自不必多事；但如果该国内部，自相残杀，尤其政府迫害异己，残杀无辜，其他国家理当拍案而起，予以谴责、制止、乃至于将暴徒暴君送交国际法庭。因为，人类共处于一个蓝色星球，人性相通，如姐妹兄弟，岂能因国界相隔而纵容暴力与犯罪？

曾经因为干涉不力，国际社会坐视红色高棉（柬共）屠杀民众170万，卢旺达种族屠杀50万，苏丹政府屠杀民众30万。如今，这类大屠杀的主谋及其追随者，都正在或即将受到正义的审判。基于这类惨痛教训，国际干涉的决心和力度日益增强。

中共所说的中国“内政”，不仅国际社会不得干涉，就连中国人民自己，也不得干涉。中国民众中，有议论者或干涉者，轻则受到警告，重则投入监狱，甚至被杀人灭口。所谓中国“内政”，实为中共“家政”。是中共的暴政，而非中国人民的“内政”。正因如此，中共视仗义执言的国际友人、国际社会、和文明国家为大敌。每遇批评和谴责，就暴跳如雷，恶言咒骂。

中共自称“不干涉他国内政”，实际也处处干涉他国内政。区别只是，中共的干涉，都是负面的和反动的，每每为恶势力撑腰，符合其独裁本性。发生在柬埔寨和苏丹的大屠杀，都因中共在背后怂恿或张目，屠杀中的武器，也大都来自中共。这是负面干涉的典型。中共对此，更负有不可推卸的历史罪责。

8月10日，被中共官方《人民日报》标榜为“全党同志和全国各族人民热切期待”的《江泽民文选》三卷本，终于“一次性”出版发行了。

用中共惯用的政治术语“代表全国人民”来介绍这本书，多少有点落伍。他江泽民出版《文选》，用得着一个中共党外人士“热切期盼”吗？江泽民2002年退出中共中央领导核心职务，2003年交出军权，善于摸索官场“潜规则”的江泽民应该明白“人走茶凉”的道理，没有自知之明地推出所谓的“文选”，除了证明他江泽民更加劳民伤财、遗臭万年，还能说明什么呢？

说实话，历史和时间一样，不偏不差，既不给江泽民多一天，也不给王泽民少一天，人人都是平等的，没有一个人一天能有25个小时，所以江泽民出版“文选”试图让天下人记住他，可事实上中共的历史忠实记录陈独秀、张闻天、胡耀邦、赵紫阳等没有被官方出版“文选”的人，而官方以吹捧方式出版“文选”的人，比如这位江泽民，恐怕没有多少人会相信他。

江泽民的历史，好大喜功，迫害法轮功，强奸民意，打压新闻自由，不尊重和不保障人权的案例比比皆是，恶法和恶性罄竹难书。大家可以翻翻以往的旧帐，看看他江泽民执政13年，到底为社会公正、保障人权做了哪些好事，又做了哪些坏事，对比一下可以发现，他做的好事屈指难数，倒是两极分化，冤屈遍地，职工下岗，农民贫困怨声载道，到是资本家入党，富翁成为假冒的无产阶级，成为国家的主人，百姓都是被奴役的奴隶。

所以说，现在中共出版《江泽民文选》，正好是质问“还有多少人相信共产党，还有多少人相信江泽民”的时候了。

看看当代中国，好事都是共产党干的，坏事都与共产党无关，江泽民处处“双赢”，风头出尽，儿子还当上了中国科学院副院长，80岁了还要拿国家的钱，也就是人民的血汗钱出版早就在报纸和杂志上发表过几百遍的“文选”集，有多少文章他江泽民自己写的？还不是秘书代劳的。说毛泽东暴君，至少他的文章多半是自己写的，可一代不如一代，他江泽民就没有能力自己写出三大本来。

不过，既然《江泽民文选》“霸王硬上弓”，出版了，我认为有这么几条意见提出，请当局以对人民负责的态度，认真对待：

一、请不要在共产党员之外的群众中摊派，共产党员可以自费或由党费购买，免费发放各党员，大约有7000万党员。

二、江泽民本人应该捐献出本三卷书的全部稿费，捐给希望工程和西部贫困地区的教育事业，并接受监督和公证。

三、报纸、电视上以广告形式宣传这本书，应该向媒体支付广告费，从出版成本里支付。

四、当局组织官员和党员学习《江泽民文选》，请不要强迫安排普通群众学习，党事的归党事，党外的归党外，不要重演全民学习《毛泽东选集》时的历史悲剧。

这阵子某些媒体对卡斯特罗的健康状况异常关心，前几天CCTV的播音员满脸喜色地向中国人报告：卡斯特罗的手术成功了。同时还播放了一段古巴官方的一段讲话。可能CCTV的心情不错，这条新闻用了不少时间。

在有报道称卡斯特罗身体不佳的时候，还有媒体强压悲伤的心情，说是古巴医生鉴定卡斯特罗能活140岁。这颗为卡斯特罗善祷善颂的孝心，足以惊天地泣鬼神。

昨天又有媒体兴奋地宣布卡斯特罗的手术非常成功，挫败了美国的阴谋。天啊，又不是美国人给他做手术，手术成功不成功关美国人屁事。再细细一看，原来是说卡斯特罗的健康可以抵御美国人在古巴推行民主的企图。

不由得再次想起CCTV经常播放的一首歌，那首歌颂封建皇帝的歌唱道：我还想再活500年。中国人的气魄着实了得，卡斯特罗已经从1959年1月1日起执政古巴至今47年了，卡氏曾经表示自己只想执政到100岁，也就是说再执政20年，然后退休用40年的时间颐养天年。这样的话，卡斯特罗将一共执政67年，美国不知道换了多少总统。中国人是想执政500多年，哪是古巴这蕞尔小国能比的。

某些中国媒体对卡斯特罗健康的关心，远远超过了对本国人健康的关心，包括本国领导人健康的关心，让人不禁想问：卡斯特罗是你爹么？

卡斯特罗在讲到为什么古巴要由他执政时说：“当我不再执掌古巴政权时，美国肯定会想尽一切办法来瓦解或者演变古巴。”

原来是为了古巴红色江山不变色，可惜，就算是卡斯特罗手术真的很成功，就算是卡斯特罗真能再执政20年，就算是卡斯特罗能活到140岁，最终他还是要死的。

无非就是多抵御个几十年吧。

任何国家如果把某种希望寄托在一个人身上都是令人悲哀的，因为人总是要死的。CCTV之流，就是天天为卡斯特罗爹祈祷祝福也仅仅是起到还能多撑几年的安慰作用。

但世界潮流终究还是会来的。

如果不是痛恨那句著名的废话: 经济基础决定上层建筑, 上层建筑反过来影响经济基础–我不会想到来讨论这个大题目, 因为很显然, 这种大题目不是一篇短文所能承载的. 不过开始思考这个题目并跟朋友们做简单的交流之后, 我发现当这个题目以改头换面的形式出场的时候,一些莫名其妙的说法在很多人的认知中有相当高的”市场占有率”, 典型的有,”只要经济发展,专制政权就能维持”, “经济发展购买政治稳定”, “中共的政治合法性建立在经济发展之上”,权势阶层自己似乎认同这种说法, “发展是硬道理“ , 这种浅薄的实用主义哲学甚至演绎成为只要GDP增长达到8%, 中共统治就是稳固的. 

 

这种论断的推论就是经济发展不但产生不了民主, 甚至是阻碍了民主政治的发展. 这就不是什么决定什么的废话了,这已经是公然侮辱我们常识的胡话了. 这种胡话让人无法接受. 

 

分析这种说法， 很明显就看出这种论断的逻辑贫乏: 经济发展是事实, 中共继续维持统治是事实, 硬生生的把两个事实扯到一起, 并赋予因果联系, 这大概是一些人认知的通病. 再没有比这种逻辑更可笑的.

 

回到概念本身,   经济权利是最基本的权利, 经济发展是个人真实权利的拓展。 哈耶克说过，控制了一个人的嘴巴， 也就控制了一个人的思想。以计划经济为特征的社会主义就是奴役之路。 49年-79年之间的几十年，经济发展一塌糊涂， 但是专制体制对社会的控制最深入， 最有效，除了不间断的内部权力斗争， 从来没有形成实质性的民间对暴政的对抗。没有经济发展,  民众就没有了反抗暴政的能力, 今天的朝鲜，古巴是真实的例子, 人们依然伏倒在暴政的脚下，卑微的乞求填报肚子的食物。 今天的中国，随着经济的发展，专制体制虽然拥有了更多的经济资源， 但是重要的是人们不再为了食物，住房，工作，健康而感谢”党和政府”，个人主义和自由有了坚实的物质基础, 理性化政治观念开始形成。这种真实权利的形成和观念的变迁是极权主义最大的对手。

 

除了这个一般意义上的逻辑，我们还可以结合中国今天的一些现实来具体的分析.  

首先经济发展的推动力是私有经济，而私有经济面临的最大阻碍是权力剥夺和行政垄断。由于产权保护不充分, 私有经济无法在法律层面跟垄断权力抗衡, 而权力又以种种方式威胁着私有经济. 与政治垄断象对应的, 统治集团依然试图牢牢控制经济基础, 比如国资委辖下的180 多家垄断企业, 事实上控制着中国经济命脉. 经济要有所发展, 必须要在上述两方面有所突破, 比如权力高于法律的事实要改变, 垄断要打破. 对中共来讲, 很难在这些关键层面与经济发展获得双赢, 而必须是逐步交换自己的政治资源.  这好比是在整个社会的股权结构中 中共依然是一股独大, 但是股民并不买帐， 要吸引股民，提升股票的价值， 中共必须靠不断稀释股份来交换。 今天的中国，中共也许还保留着控股权,. 但是经济不断发展， 就会不断消解这种控股权。 .

 

其次逐步富裕的新生代精英阶层在现代理念的熏陶下, 已经不再满足于权力的恩赐, 他们希望拥有自己的一片阳光, 他们希望坦荡的维护自己的利益。这种利益驱动促使越来越多的企业家对公共事务的关注， 并开始谨慎的发言。 虽然这种发言传递的信息是有限的， 是迂回的。 但是很明显， 跟专制权力的逻辑是格格不入的。

有人曾经用精英联盟的模式来解释中共和其他精英阶层共生共荣的局面。 这种解释在某个时间段上虽然有一定的解释力。 但是显然忽视了很多重要的信息。 首先，这种联盟并不是平等意义上的伙伴关系， 在权力精英面前， 其他精英阶层是弱小的，是依附性的，换句话说， 这种精英联盟是貌合神离的，是策略性的， 是脆弱的。 其次， 社会演进对这种联盟各方的效用是完全不一样的。 民主化潮流显然是特权阶层的坟墓， 但是民主化潮流跟经济精英的利益是完全兼容的， 宪政民主并不指向社会财富的再分配，而是政治权利的平等分配， 是政治规则的合理化和可以预期， 为经济发展设定更合理的制度环境。 这种指向跟经济精英的诉求并不矛盾。 那种认为专制体制下培养出来的经济精英必然维护专制体制的判断是武断的。

事实上， 权力阶层在这点上显示了难得的清醒，他们并不被这种联盟假象所迷糊。因此，这几年来，经济自由化改革已经名存实亡，权力阶层在核心经济控制权上死死不愿放松。

 

经济发展使深层次的社会问题凸显出来。政治垄断下的公民权利贫困, 使越来越多的公众无法分享经济发展的成果. 如果说10 多前的经济发展是一种帕类托改进的话, 那样这些年的经济发展呈现出强烈的掠夺性。首先是中共对于整个经济体的汲取能力和汲取份额远远超过经济增长的幅度，利用权力市场化的套路，党政官僚致富速度惊人，腐败普遍化。政府借助改革之名，把一些原来承担的公共责任，如教育，医疗等等给抛离。改革的成本，经济发展的成本却被转嫁到社会的底层。城市的弱势群体 , 广大的农民在经济发展时代迅速被边缘化。

这种变化后果之一是中共体制效能的急剧衰败。中共政权丧失了在公众面前残留的道义权威，执政能力娱乐化，政策执行效果大打折扣， 执行成本大大增加。 另外，中共自身整合能力递减，组成部分离心力增加；源源不断外逃的贪官就是例证。

后果之二是弱者的反抗。当社会不提供机会，法律不提供公正的时候，数量庞大的弱势群体显然不会坐以待毙。 事实上，他们是这几年风起云涌的维权运动的最大群体， 此起彼伏的群体性事件极大的消耗了专制当局的能量。

 

我想上面的论述可以破除那个多少有些莫名其妙的论断: 经济发展有利于专制稳定。反过来引发的一个有趣的问题是， 当经济发展对于专制统治不再是利好的时候，专制体制会设法阻碍经济发展吗？极权主义的逻辑是，为了垄断权力，他们会不惜一切代价。但是幸运的是，极权主义并不象看上去那么万能， 经济自由化进程是一个不可逆的过程，专制体制通过重新控制经济来抑制经济发展将是极端不明智的政治自杀。

 

回到原来的问题, 经济发展是否促进民主政治呢? 请原谅,我将大段的借用何增科先生的一段论述作为结尾.

何增科先生的一段论述作为结尾.

 

 

 

“经济发展是民主政治发展最重要的动力机制。经济发展是现代化的核心内容，它促成了工业化、城市化、教育的普及、通讯的便捷、人口的大规模流动、收入水平的提高等。经济发展缔造了现代的工业社会。现代工业社会要求产生新的与之相适应的政治管理模式，传统的与农业社会相适应的政治管理模式的变革势在必行。源自经济发展的内在要求，成为推动政治发展与变革的决定性因素。同时，经济发展提高了大众的教育和文化水平，信息网络技术的发展和大众传播媒介的发达提高了公众的组织能力和行为能力，经济发展也为政治的发展与变革提供了物质技术基础。经济发展还加速了社会动员，后者是指人们所承担的绝大多数旧的社会、经济和心理义务受到侵蚀而崩溃，并开始逐渐获得新的社会化模式和行为模式的过程。城市化的发展，识字率的增加，大众传媒的商业化，交通通讯技术日益发达，深刻地改变着人们的生活方式和生活内容，人们开始告别传统，逐渐接受现代行为模式和价值观，并用现代价值观来评判政府和官员的行为和积极要求参与政治生活。社会动员所造就的新的政治生态，为政治系统的重新整合提供了基础、契机和动力。”

Racing against Terror

By Zhou Qing

Honorable Mr. President,
Honorable Delegates of PEN Centers
Ladies and Gentlemen;
Good Afternoon. I am very much grateful to the Italian PEN for your invitation of me to this conference in such a beautiful city – Milan. It is the first time for me to have attended a conference as a writer after 17 years of being labeled as a dangerous element by the Communist Party in China since I was arrested in the wake of June Fourth Massacre in 1989. The reason that I am here emphasizing my identity as a writer is not only because this opportunity may be considered as a comfort and compensation to my inhuman life in the jail for two years and eight months, where I lost six teeth and got a permanent cripple arm, but also because my personality have been defined as a fearful carrier of viruses in the society of China. As a matter of fact, I started writing in early 1980s and got a prize for my publication even at my teenage. I have never stopped my writing since my release from jail, and ever nominated for some International literature awards for several times.
Since I was released from jail, my name has not been allowed to appear in the media in Mainland China for a considerably long time. When it appeared for the first time, the character of my given name had to be split into two parts as Jing-li. Chinese literati had been known to preserve a tradition that one should not change ones name in whatsoever situation. In todays China, however, the authorities have screened the names of many writers as carefully as to prevent the pestilences from occurring. More dreadfully, a few members of the Independent Chinese PEN have been severely sentenced in prison just for their different opinions from those of the Chinese Communist authority.
On the contrary, if one could behave oneself obediently toward the Chinese communist authority, a writer in such a corrupted state of authoritarianism would get unthinkable material comforts and spiritual debauchery from it. For instance, a woman communist writer is said to have got a authors remuneration 10 times higher than the normal one for a short story of hers despite being a privileged author who has already enjoyed, even if she would do nothing any more, a good salary, a big apartment, a full job insurance and other benefits which the most of Chinese citizens cannot have. What would such a writer say about the situation in China? What would the Chinese Communist regime do for such a kind of hack writers? To the second question, the cultural and propaganda departments of the Chinese Communist regime have done utmost to support and propagandize them both in China and abroad. There are famous writers, such as Yu Hua and Mo Yan, who have being written the complementary works without any troubles in China, and who, at the same time, have also be nominated for the Nobel Prize in literature. Their identities as a member of the Chinese Communist Party, or even a member of the Chinese Peoples Political Consultation Committee, have however be completely ignored by the Western society. Therefore, they have chances to eat every thing, enjoying not only the governmental banquets at the Peoples Congress in China but also the great culture meals abroad. An extreme case is Mr. Yu Hua who visited Italy not long ago, as you might have known. He announced to the Italian media that publication in China is now very liberal, and that his publication has never been censored at all, bla, bla. That was of cause a ridiculous announcement. Hence, I would like to express my respect to Italy PEN again for giving this opportunity to a member of Chinese Independent PEN in the present Italian-Chinese Culture Year.
When I am now writing this, as a matter of fact, I am still wondering whether or not I will finally be present at thi conference. It is well known that many Chinese writers, particularly members of our Chinese Independent PEN Center, such as our president Dr. Liu Xiaobo, are not permitted by the Chinese government to be abroad for participation in any activity or even for a private tour. At the end of 1999 when I returned from a visit to Russia, I was detained at the border in Xinjiang Autonomous Region for more than ten days. The reason could be only that I was not supposed to have returned to China.
I believe that terrifying and lying are the two most important tools that all the totalitarian states have employed to maintain their legitimacy and continuity. The dictators can always take their advantages in controlling the resources almost in a whole society to occupy, override and threaten the private spaces of the society and its citizens at any costs. Those in power have just made use of the common fears of publics to protect their interests obtained from corruption and preserve their sources of continual corruption. Meanwhile, they constantly produce lies to distort the history and reality. The terrors and lies are spreading over whole China so as to seriously pollute and drug the people in various social groups and the society as a whole. Hence, I define it as the State Terrorism.
It is during the past 17 years since June Forth Massacre in 1989 that this State Terrorism has been getting more and more threatening so as to reach the peak of degenerating Chinese people as a whole. The State Terrorism behaves like a carrier of virus. As it extends and expands without limitation, it will finally devour all the living spaces of the people, freedom of expression, and future as well as spiritual development. Now, I will tell you the story of my life during the past 17 years, both inside and outside jail to explain State Terrorism. I believe that my case should be a vivid example for realizing and understanding the situation in China, particularly for a writer there.
In 1989, I was studying in a class of writers at university before the massacre. When the student petition movement was touched off by the death of the former Party General Secretary Mr. Hu Yaobang, my indifferent and indolent life was turned to become intensive and meaningful accordingly. I wrote and put up a poster to protest the editorial of Peoples Daily published on the 26th of April 1989 that condemned the student petition movement. This poster became therefore the root for later persecution against me. When I was sentenced to jail, the first item of my crime in my court verdict was that I had illegally published a newsletter of Democracy and Freedom, for which I was the chief editor, with a printout of 1000 copies. Moreover, I had drafted several posters for the students, mobilizing the students strike, etc. Obviously, this is a typical case of persecution because of expressing ones opinion.
In the wake of the June Forth Massacre, I fled though completely penniless. A student gave me some money from the earlier donation. An unlettered peasant couple also helped me on my way of fleeing and said: We can see that you must be a student, and so please hide at our home. If the police come, we will let our dogs face them while you will escape from our back door to the mountains. However, I was aimless in my fleeing and also very much worried about my girlfriend at the Xian Jiaotong University. Therefore I decided to return to Xian, just for a look at her.
I was beaten down in front of the gate of the University. What I faced was various types of guns pointing at me. I was immediately punished by handcuffing my thumbs. Seeing the blood full of my face, my girlfriend helplessly screamed for help, A student being arrested! A student being arrested! but none of the students playing football nearby appeared to care of it.
My first place in jail was the detention center at the Fifth Department of Xian Public Security Bureau. That was the most infamous one amongst all the ails in China where most of the prisoners had handcuffs and shackles for they were waiting to be executed. There I accompanied more than 30 of them.
The director of the detention center had a nickname as Tiger Wang. He often broadcasted like this: I will make you a subject for three changes! Your wife will change her husband
, your son will change his surname, and you from dog fucking will change your mind!
As so many were locked up in the same cell, fights, tortures and sexual attacks among the prisoners have frequently been happening. There were many prisoners sentenced to death for different types of crimes who enjoyed overriding, beating and humiliating the others. The student prisoners like me were often the victims of those attacks. We had to fight back to defend ourselves since the detention administration often neglected those attacks intentionally. Once with a wooden piece, I broke the head of a death-sentenced prisoner who had always humiliated the student prisoners. However, the police punished me by handcuffing my hands tightly behind my back. I could neither eat nor sleep. The only way to survive was to be fed up by kind roommates. After six days of such punishment, I could hardly withdraw my hands from my back.
There were many different kinds of tortures amongst the prisoners. It is never possible for anyone in a normal and rational society to imagine how brutal these tortures could be. One of the tortures was called vaccination carried out during the summer time. It was to make a cut on an arm of the victim, and then put many fleas, bugs and cooties into the wound. After several days, the victim became vaccinated with a reluctance swelling on the wound like a tomato. But there were hundreds of visible bugs moving inside. It was really terrible.
Another brutal torture was beating ones buttocks with a plastic hose until they became heavy swelled. I witnessed that a prisoner was tortured in this way to a very severe extent just for his smoking without permission. He died of the infection of his wound but his death was certified as a natural one due to some disease.
On 26th of September, 1990, I was transferred to a Labor Camp for so called Reeducation-through-Labor (Laodong Jiaoyang) in Fengxiang County, Shaanxi Province. There had been more than one hundred prisoners in its June Forth Special Team, prior to my arrival. The prisoners were teachers, engineers, students, workers as well as hoboes and beggars. In November of the same year, I learnt from the only newspaper available in jail that the Communist regime made its most efforts for the prolongation of so-called Most-Favored-Nation statue from USA. They pulished such a statement day by day as to claim that nobody was locked up in jail any more for the June Forth Movement. Due to the lack of information in jail, I thought that the international society must have been cheated by such a lie and that Chinese intellectuals had been too weak and obidient to do anything againt it. Under such a completely closed circumstance, this radical mentality of mine became more emotional. Then I made an extrem decision that I should set a presendent to escape from the Labor Camp and then flee abroad. Then I could tell the world the truth.
Accordingly I started looking for partners of jailbreak. Mr. He was a group leader among the prisoners. He told me that he wanted to escape as well, because he was missing his girlfriend. I thought he maight be a good partner since he was a group leader who had much more convienience to get necessary tools than I had. There was another man who was just arrested from a former jailbreak. So there became a team of three persons for jailbreak.
The plane for jailbreak was carried out as such. The group leader, Mr. He, was able to get a piece of steel-saw hidden in a sausage transported into the jail. My responsibility was to saw off the sticks of the security fence on the window. I had also utilized my bed heet, to make an eight-meters long rope together with my two partners, which would be utilized to get over the high wall of the prison.
All in a sudden, four hours before the planed moment, a group of fierce policemen rushed into our cell. They easily discovered the off-sawed window fence, as well as the eight-meters-long rope. I was immediately put into a isolated cell with heavy guards. The rest of the prisoners held a meeting, and decided to burden me for any charge. I realized later on that the so-called team of three for jailbreak was a trap from the beginning.
The consequence of this attempt of jailbreak was obvious. I was guarded in an isolation cell for a long time, and then punished with a prolongation of my imprisonment for five months. The reasons for prolongation of imprisonment were given as follows:
· Bad and stubborn attitude in the isolation cell;
· Refusing to confess my crime of jailbreak;
· Singing and shouting loudly to disturb the integrations;
· Spreading continuously in the Labor Camp my arguments against the June Forth Massacre in 1989;
· Collecting a name list of imprisoned students and teachers and trying to get it out of the Labor Camp.
Hence, I spent two years and eight months in jail.
As soon as I was released from the jail, I was carefully watched in the society. For instance, I was told that I must stay at home for several days because the President Bill Clinton was visiting China. I became furious and told the police, Bill Clintons visit must not disturb my ordinary life. If you continue to tail me, I will disturb Mr. Clinton as well! Later on, a kind neighbor told me that there had been several new peddlers and strange cars around our house during these days. They were all from the security police.
It has been rather often that I was forced to have a tourist trip escorted by policemen outside Xian during the so-called sensitive periods. They just guarded my door to prevent my disappearance from their sight. I tried once to travel to Zhangjiajie city located in another province, without telling anybody. However, I surprisingly encountered two policemen who were in charge of my case in Xian, on the third days after my arrival. This was not an easy job for them to find me in such a city with a population of three million people. However, they got plenty of policemen to trace me with my photo in hands.
Last year when I tried to help a friend from USA to publish a series of books on Christianity, the police questioned all the related persons, including a car driver.
The policemen watched me as careful as possible. They told me that their attitudes ware never to believe me for any of my publications. At the middle of 1990s, I was in charge of publishing a newspaper entitled Historical Tale. Then they threatened me to shut down the newspaper immediately. Otherwise they would do it themselves, because I was not worth to be trusted, even if there are full pages of a slogan such as Long live the Chinese Communist Party on my newspaper.
In short, I have suffered fears and turbulence day by day in the past 17 years. Yet, all of my family members and friends suffered from inquisition, disturbing and even threats. Naturally, I have to continue to face with the terrors, in the future.
I am telling the stories of my experience just for a surprising and unbelievable truth that I found by chance, that is, all of my sufferings for so many years have been related to the words. I therefore realize that whenever the writers are subjected to terror in a country, the regime must be based on a national terrorism. This has been thoroughly proved in history, from Hitlers Germany to Stalins Soviet Union, from Mao Zedongs China to Saddam Husseins Iraq, as well as todays Cuba, North Korea and my homeland.
My opinion is that it is much more important to recover and repair the humanity which has been distorted by the dictatorship, than to face with the ational terrorism. Please allow me to explain with the example of the Pro-democratic Movement in 1989. During the Movement, there was a very special period from 15th April to the end of May. The people appeared to be extremely self-disciplined though no police carried out their duty by intention. There was not a single case of serious crime happed almost in the whole country during such a long time. Even the thiefs published poster of suspending stealing in order to support the students.
Nonetheless, The extreme high sel
f-discipline society turned immediately into a prosecution movement, as soon as the gun fire broke out against the students. In the prosecutions, people disclosed and betraied each other, so that it became a new kind of terrors among the people. Homo lupus homini One is a wolf to other. This has been the strategy of the Chinese nation. This is also the great success of the long-term rule over China by the Communist Party. All the people became slaves of the dictatorship system. I therefore believe that the dictatorship is the natural enemy of the civilized society. It is also the most terrible threats against democracy, freedom and global orders.
To live in China at the moment means that one must race with terror, particularly for a writer. We utilize our ration to face and struggle against the terrors, so as to achieve the slight improvement. Chinese Independent PEN Center and its Writers in Prison Committee have just been organized for such a racing with terror. It makes its best effort to care and rescue the writers from the terrors.
Finally, I believe that there must be a public space in human society which is shared by everybody. In this space, the strengths of goodness and evil are always competing. As a writer, I believe that any kind of freedom is first and foremost derived from the expression of freedom. To write in freedom is also a challenge against the living status under the dictatorship. Though we fail often, we will continue to fight for the freedom of writing and expression!
Thank you!

(Translated by Dr. Minhai Gui)

已经没了“消息”的郭起真 綦彦臣

【2006年8月10日狱委讯】沧公国诉字〔2006〕01号起诉意见书一经公开，就说明郭起真案重判意向初定。原来，据我掌握的一些信息看，郭起真仅为网络文章之事应无大碍。因为，中共高层已经表达出对网络言论的一定程度上的容忍（并且还有以技术性应对如写作班子在反动“电子刊物”发表文章为辅助手段）。但是，从刘路先生公开沧公国诉字〔2006〕01号起诉意见书，时至今日，郭起真似乎从这个世界上消失了。  一、再遭禁见，已见“凶兆”  我于6月30日去沧州市第二看守所会见过郭起真，并且郭太太于翌日  接见日亦得准许。6月30日会见时，没要任何手续，但是，在我提出  会见要求后，看守所的人也商量了一番，请示市局办案部门当是情理  之中的事情。此前，我给起真写过一封挂号信，要求起真停止绝食，  以利于我能从“人际关系”方面为此“活动”，并且在没了解到独立  笔会帮助的情况下我也准备以“委托代理人”的身分介入此案并暂时  停止了护照办理。  会见郭时，问及此信，郭称没收到。但对绝食问题的解释则全然不是  北京一些分析人士所说的“与高有关即等于与法轮功有关”的判断，  郭说是为自己蒙屈12年不得昭雪而为之。在沧州当局以各种理由不为  郭的辩护律师李建强提供会见郭的机会之后，郭太太赵长芹女士7月  8号中午打给我太太米洪武的电话，告知：郭又遭禁见，不但不能见  律师，而且连家属也无法见了。  此种信息让我立感惊愕，也使我的某些“活动计划”受挫。“活动计  划”中至少有与案件本身关系不大的羁押待遇问题，如使腿伤未好的  郭得以合理用药、吃得好一点、尽可能减低劳动量，等等。  二、“破例”引用法条的含义  从起诉意见书上看，有两点证明了重判的倾向：其一，证据获得时间  如此之短，从5月25日至6月16日不到一个月，说明当局早有准备；事  实上也如此，双方经历了多次博弈，从补给两万块钱药费到有人捎  “再闹就判”的话，不一而足。其二，意见书上引用刑法1066条即在  1055条（第二款）的基础上规定“与境外机构、组织、个人相勾结，  实施本章1033条、1044条、105条规定之罪行的，依照各该条的规定  从重处罚。”  在已往的“煽动颠覆”案例中当局几乎很少援引106条，因为可以百  分之百地肯定，那些被指控为“煽动颠覆”的言论都是海外媒体发表  的，也就是说，作为挣取稿费及保持与有关媒体联系的写稿行为，本  质上都是按商业行为对待，而不存在“发了文章或拿了稿费，就是相  互勾结”之定性。  由这个重判倾向又有“破例”的当局行为来看，原来的一个“悬念”  也得以证实：有关部门一直试图将郭起真“办成法轮功”的打算也得  以实现。虽然起诉意见书未直接说是因为郭参加绝食接力而要处刑法  106条的强化处罚，但隐约间已经涉及当下最为敏感的政治问题，如  该意见书中有两处提到《绝食日记》系列文章。其一曰：“自2002年  10月以来在美国《民主论坛》等境外网站发表的《绝食日记》、《赖  斯和林昭》等文章34篇，被《大纪元》等境外网站转载……在国际上  造成了恶劣的影响。”；其二曰：“2006年3月6日在《民主论坛》发  表的《三月六日绝食日记》一文……煽动推翻现政权。”  当局已经设想或者说有自己的情治手段证实郭起真绝食的行为有一个  “境外支持”背景。  三、屡给地方出“难题”也是诱因之一  郭起真坚持12年的上访，并每逢重要节日或重大公共活动之际散发大  量的鸣冤材料，已成了沧州地方上的一大“难题”。仅就笔者与郭起  真的接触中就能了解到：（１）曾有权力部门人士警谏郭不要继续  “闹事儿”，余下的恢复工作等事就好说了；（２）在坠塔事件发生  后，跟踪郭的党系部门拿出两万元当作郭的治疗费用。但郭态度坚决  地拒绝了警谏，并继续拖着伤腿鸣冤，使沧州当局十分尴尬。  关于郭在上访材料中所涉及的与原单位负责人马某的关系，我曾在私  下劝郭“冤仇宜解不宜结”，应当给对方个下台阶，因为既便所反应  的问题完全得以落实，也不过是个毛毛雨般的小案子。郭对此表示不  能理解。我还逗趣地给他讲了当年我被抓后对看守人员说的一句预  言：“你们的书记也快了。”──大家都以为我说气话，果不久沧州  头号权力人物薄某就进入了中纪委的视野，再后来重刑在身，险些丢  命。其实，郭案的“地方因素”在一定程度上仍是“薄氏政治”的一  些余波，因为在薄氏当政之时沧州官风鱼烂，其不作为直接导致了郭  起真由一个正直公民走向上访专业户进而所谓煽动颠覆政权的结果。  一个上访了多年，本身反映的材料充分但又不是重大事件的基本问题  即与原单位马某的纠纷，真地就没法解决吗？不可能！  至于说到郭起真全力以赴为之鸣冤的王某“杀人嫌疑”案，其当事人  王某的反应则更令人惊诧。据郭太太说：王某曾专到郭宅，要求郭不  必主动替他维权，声称“自己想过平静的日子”并希望郭将所有涉及  他的上访材料都拿出来，所开支的印刷费用全部奉上。  王某“杀人嫌疑”一案终因证据不足而使当事人获无罪开释，但至今  “真凶”一直没有找到。郭起真一直坚持追究“错办”王案的警方有  关人员的责任，无疑大大地牵涉了沧州地方盘根错节的诸种利益关  系。  结束语：前景未定  郭起真案的重判倾向无疑为中央党校政改提纲的第一条“一党执政下  的国家法律至上”理想设计，泼了一瓢冷水。当然，郭起真是否被重  判的条件还取决于以下三个条件：  １、是否在“党管法律”即政法委模式下，事先定出一个“一定将此  　　案办成铁案”的调子，公检法一体化作业。  ２、起诉意见书所意欲采用的刑法106条的主张──指控他与《民主  　　论坛》的供稿关系为“接受海外敌对势力资助”──是无法成立  　　的；是否有其他核心证据支持──哪怕当庭出示涉及国家秘密的  　　证据而不是让大众知晓──才得以技术性确认。  ３、郭起真本人当庭对绝食最终目的陈述，能否将自己绝食行为与当  　　局的“背景确认”完全分开。  （2006年8月6日于绵逸书房）

曾 鹏
浙江工商大学公共管理学院讲师，社会工作博士生
戴利朝
江西师范大学助理研究员，社会学博士
罗观翠
中